AI Drives 9.5% Surge in U.S. Ad Spend Forecast for 2026

AI Takes Center Stage in Advertising Growth

The Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) has released its annual 2026 Outlook Study, forecasting a 9.5% year-over-year increase in U.S. advertising spend. This growth is attributed to cyclical events such as the Winter Olympics and mid-term elections, as well as the increasing adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) in marketing. The report, based on insights from over 200 brands and agency buyers, highlights a market undergoing significant transformation, with AI playing a crucial role in strategic planning, activation, and measurement.

“Our report shows that in this growth cycle, innovation and experimentation are firmly taking priority as the market is being structurally reimagined,” said David Cohen, CEO of IAB. “The encouraging news is that buyers are still looking at 2026 as a year of growth despite a lot of potentially destabilizing forces.”

Agentic AI Reshaping Campaign Execution

According to the study, AI is no longer a peripheral tool but a central component of marketing operations. In fact, five of the top six areas seeing increased advertiser focus are directly tied to AI. These include the rise of agentic AI—systems capable of autonomous decision-making and optimization—which are now integral to campaign planning and execution.

As these AI-driven systems become more sophisticated, advertisers are prioritizing cross-platform measurement to track performance across various channels. The report notes that interest in cross-platform measurement has risen to 72%, up from 64% the previous year. This reflects a growing need to link AI-optimized campaigns with measurable outcomes.

Additionally, 73% of marketers are now emphasizing the creation of content tailored for AI-generated search results, indicating a shift in how creative assets are structured for maximum visibility across platforms.

Digital Media Outpaces Traditional Channels

With total U.S. ad expenditures projected to grow by 9.5% in 2026, digital platforms are expected to lead the charge. Social media, connected TV (CTV), and commerce media are all forecasted to experience double-digit growth, with increases of 14.6%, 13.8%, and 12.1% respectively. These gains are largely driven by advanced targeting and measurement capabilities powered by AI.

In contrast, linear TV ad spend is projected to decline by 1.7%. Although this represents a slower rate of decline compared to previous years, the channel is temporarily buoyed by high-profile media events such as the Winter Olympics, FIFA World Cup, and U.S. mid-term elections. These events are expected to offer short-term boosts in viewership and advertiser demand.

Marketing Priorities Evolve with Consumer Behavior

The IAB study also underscores a shift in marketing priorities influenced by evolving consumer habits and the growing influence of AI. The leading investment focus for 2026 is adapting to changing consumer behavior, cited by 44% of respondents. This marks a shift away from macroeconomic concerns, reflecting a more consumer-centric approach.

Understanding generative AI has also become a significant challenge, cited by 38% of advertisers—an increase of 14 percentage points from the previous year. This highlights the need for deeper AI fluency within marketing organizations.

While customer acquisition remains the top objective for 54% of buyers, this represents a 10-point drop from the prior year. Meanwhile, the focus on driving repeat purchases has grown to 25%, nearly doubling from 13% in 2024. This change signals a broader move toward retention-driven strategies, particularly among mid-size and large advertisers seeking more sustainable growth models.

AI Enables Smarter, Scalable Growth Strategies

As agentic AI becomes more embedded in marketing workflows, it is enabling marketers to manage budget pacing, audience segmentation, and campaign optimization with greater efficiency. This has made retention strategies not only more effective but also more scalable.

“Brands are clearly rebalancing their growth strategies as acquisition costs rise and first-party data ecosystems mature,” said Chris Bruderle, Vice President of Industry Insights & Content Strategy at IAB. “AI—particularly agentic AI—is poised to enable marketers to activate those data assets more intelligently, driving personalization, loyalty, and repeat purchases at scale.”

He also noted that technologies like commerce media, clean rooms, CRM onboarding, and loyalty programs now provide access to millions of known customers. As a result, repeat purchases are increasingly viewed as a key growth engine rather than just a supporting strategy.

Conclusion: A Future Shaped by Intelligent Systems

The 2026 Outlook Study paints a picture of an advertising industry in the midst of profound change. With AI transitioning from a tool to a strategic partner, the way advertisers plan, execute, and measure campaigns is being revolutionized. As digital channels surge ahead and linear TV continues its gradual decline, marketers are recalibrating their priorities to align with new consumer behaviors and technological capabilities.

In this environment, agentic AI is emerging as a cornerstone for scalable, performance-driven marketing—positioning advertisers for success in a rapidly evolving landscape.


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